US midterm campaign spending projected to reach record $11.9bn

Spending on the US midterm election campaign is projected to reach a record $11.9bn, with political committees and wealthy donors pouring money into closely watched Senate contests ahead of polling on 3 November.

The forecast, from campaign finance tracker OpenSecrets and reported by BBC Verify, would put spending roughly 30% above the total for the previous midterm elections in 2022. It remains a projection: complete spending figures will not be available until after the vote.

Political committees account for more than half

Federal Election Commission filings covering the period to mid-October showed more than $9.5bn had already been spent during the election cycle, according to BBC Verify’s analysis. Political action committees, or PACs, and super PACs accounted for about $5.5bn — more than half of that total.

Their spending had almost doubled over the preceding couple of months, highlighting the scale of the late-campaign surge.

The distinction between different types of political committee matters. Contributions made directly to candidates are subject to limits, but super PACs can accept unlimited sums from individuals, corporations, labour unions and other political committees.

Super PACs cannot give those funds directly to candidates. Instead, they can spend money supporting candidates indirectly, making them a major channel for large donations.

Musk leads individual donors

Elon Musk was the largest individual donor, contributing almost half a billion dollars to Republican causes as of October, BBC Verify reported. Most of his contributions went to America PAC, which he established in 2024, and the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund.

America PAC put more than $45m into the Texas Senate race, backing Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. It also invested around $10m in each of the Senate races in Michigan and Ohio.

Other major Republican donors included trading firm executive Jeff Yass and business supply company owners Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein.

On the Democratic side, Geosor Corp and the Fund for Policy Reform, both founded by financier George Soros, gave a combined $102m to liberal groups. Former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg contributed more than $60m.

Wealthy donors and industry money

The top 40 donors had given $2.4bn by 14 October, according to the liberal-leaning Brennan Center for Justice. The organisation described that as a record for that stage of a midterm election cycle.

Cryptocurrency businesses were also significant contributors. OpenSecrets’ Brendan J Glavin said Ripple and Coinbase together gave $63m to fund super PACs promoting the industry’s interests.

Campaign funds pay for staff, voter outreach, rallies and internal polling, but advertising takes the largest share, particularly television advertising. Michigan, Texas and Ohio were the leading Senate races for advertising spending tracked by AdImpact, followed by Iowa and Maine.

The final cost of the campaign will become clearer once post-election disclosures are filed. For now, the $11.9bn forecast points to a substantial increase over the last midterm cycle, rather than a completed spending total.