Thailand may have to wait until 2031 or later for 40 million tourists

Thailand may not reach 40 million foreign tourists a year until 2031 or later, according to a University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce survey that points to a prolonged recovery and stronger competition from regional destinations.

The survey, reported by Khaosod English, found that 32.2% of tourism operators expected the annual milestone to be reached in 2031–2032, while 30.4% thought it would take until after 2032. Another 9.1% believed Thailand might never reach that level.

Only 10.6% expected the country to welcome 40 million foreign visitors annually by 2029. Thailand received nearly 40 million in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted international travel.

Arrivals forecast to fall in 2026

UTCC forecasts approximately 31.5 million foreign arrivals in 2026, a decline of 4.5% from nearly 33 million last year. That would leave the country well below its pre-pandemic visitor volume.

The university expects arrivals to recover by 7.9% to 34 million in 2027, generating approximately 1.632 trillion baht in tourism revenue. It cautioned, however, that the target remained uncertain.

The forecasts and operators’ expectations are separate measures: the university’s projections cover this year and next, while the survey records businesses’ views on when the longer-term visitor milestone might be reached. Neither establishes a confirmed timetable for recovery.

Visitor trends differ sharply by market

Foreign arrivals totalled 23.2 million during the first nine months of 2026, down 3.8% from the same period a year earlier.

Within that overall decline, South Korean visitor numbers fell 25.4% and Malaysian arrivals dropped 15.2%. Chinese arrivals moved in the opposite direction, increasing 15.2%.

The contrasting figures show that the downturn was not uniform across source markets. Growth in Chinese visitors coincided with substantial falls in arrivals from South Korea and Malaysia, leaving the overall total lower.

Competition puts value and connections in focus

Thanavath Phonvichai, UTCC president and chief adviser to its Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting, warned that Thailand was losing its competitive edge, particularly against Vietnam.

He pointed to Vietnam’s new tourist attractions, competitive prices and expanding international flight connections. For Thailand, he identified flight connectivity, value for money and safety perceptions as weaknesses requiring attention.

Thanavath said Thailand could no longer rely on its traditional strengths in hospitality alone to attract international visitors. The university’s outlook points to a possible rebound next year, but one that would still leave arrivals short of the level reached before the pandemic.