What Will The Markets Do Next Week 27th – 31 Jul Author – Lawrence Young

#What Will The Markets Do Next Week?

*The Week Ahead: July 27–31, 2026*

Markets head into the last week of July carrying more crosscurrents than usual, and it’s worth sitting with why. Stocks posted a losing week as fighting between the U.S. and Iran flared back up, with Brent crude pushing back above $100 a barrel and Treasury yields jumping to 18-month highs on the renewed inflation worry that comes with it. That alone would be enough to occupy investors for a week. Instead, it’s arriving at the exact same moment as two of the biggest catalysts of the entire quarter: the Federal Reserve’s July meeting and the heart of Big Tech earnings season.

The Fed’s Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision landing Wednesday afternoon and Chair Kevin Warsh due to face reporters half an hour later. The consensus view is still that the Fed holds rates steady this time and waits until September to move, but futures markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a hike as soon as this meeting — a real, not trivial, probability given how sensitive officials have been to the inflationary pass-through from higher energy prices. Fed governors have been unusually vocal about this in recent weeks: Lisa Cook has pointed to inflation running at 3.7%, well above target, while Philip Jefferson and Christopher Waller have both flagged the possibility of policy reconsideration if price pressures don’t ease.

Layered on top of that, Wednesday and Thursday bring results from four of the five largest companies in the S&P 500. It’s hard to overstate how much this week matters for the shape of the year ahead. Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday, the same afternoon as the Fed decision, and Apple and Amazon follow Thursday. That cluster, combined with last week’s wobble in Alphabet and Tesla after their own reports, means the market’s view on whether massive AI capital spending is paying off — or just quietly eating into margins everywhere — is about to get a lot clearer, one way or the other.

The broader earnings backdrop remains genuinely strong even with all the noise around it. With roughly a quarter of S&P 500 companies having reported, about 86% have beaten earnings estimates and 80% have beaten on revenue, and FactSet’s full-quarter growth estimate has been revised up to 38% year-over-year — well above what analysts were expecting heading into the season. The tension for the week ahead isn’t really about whether corporate America is delivering. It’s about whether the market is willing to keep paying up for that delivery given a Fed that might not be done tightening and an oil price that isn’t cooperating.

## Last Week’s Earnings: Who Reported, and How They Did

**Alphabet** delivered one of the cleanest beats of the week and still finished it lower. Revenue came in at $119.8 billion against a consensus estimate of roughly $116.5–117 billion, and EPS of $9.11 blew past the $2.88–2.95 analysts were modeling, helped in large part by unrealized gains tied to its SpaceX stake. Google Cloud was the real story operationally, with revenue up 82% year-over-year to $24.8 billion and operating income more than tripling. None of that was enough to hold the stock up, though — shares fell as management raised full-year capital expenditure guidance to $195–205 billion, well above the roughly $188 billion Wall Street had penciled in, and investors focused squarely on the near-term margin hit from that spending rather than the growth underneath it.

**Tesla** posted the mirror image of Alphabet’s quarter: a solid revenue beat paired with a real earnings miss. Revenue reached a record $28.2 billion, up 26% year-over-year on record Q2 deliveries, comfortably ahead of the roughly $25.4–27.6 billion analysts expected. But non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 landed well short of the $0.51–0.55 consensus, a miss of close to 40%, as operating margin compressed to just 1.4% amid heavy investment in AI, manufacturing capacity, and the Robotaxi buildout. The stock fell sharply on the release as investors weighed the scale of the profitability hit against management’s continued insistence that the spending is building toward autonomy and robotics payoffs down the line.

**Intel** turned in what may have been its strongest quarter in years and the market still couldn’t quite decide how to feel about it. Revenue of $16.1 billion beat the roughly $14.3 billion consensus by more than 12%, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 doubled the $0.21 analysts expected — the seventh straight quarter Intel has topped its own guidance. Growth was its fastest in more than fifteen years, powered by AI-driven demand that now makes up around 70% of revenue. The stock initially popped nearly 13% after hours, then gave back much of that move and fell further the following session as investors focused on management’s plan to lift 2026 capital spending above $20 billion, a reminder that even the clearest beat of the week still comes with a bigger bill attached.

**General Motors** was the steadiest report of the group. Adjusted EPS of $3.57 beat the roughly $3.13–3.18 analysts expected by well over 10%, and revenue of $48.0 billion also topped consensus, helped by disciplined pricing, lower warranty costs, and shrinking EV losses. GM raised its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance for the second time this year, to a range of $14.0–16.0 billion, and highlighted a fast-growing software and subscription business — OnStar and Super Cruise revenue is now compounding at a pace that management is increasingly pointing to as the more durable story than unit sales. Shares rose modestly on the report, a relatively quiet reaction in a week defined by far louder moves elsewhere.

## Next Week’s Earnings Preview: Who’s Reporting, and What’s Expected

**Microsoft** reports its fiscal fourth quarter Wednesday after the close, with Wall Street looking for EPS of roughly $4.21–4.22 and revenue near $87.4–87.7 billion, which would represent growth of about 14–15% from a year ago. The number that will move the stock most, though, is probably Azure growth, guided at 39–40% in constant currency — a beat there would reinforce the AI-demand story, while any sign of deceleration would raise fresh questions given how much capital the company has already committed to spend. A beat on both lines with confident capex commentary would likely be read as evidence the AI buildout is still translating into paying customers; a miss, or cautious guidance on fiscal 2027 spending, would add fuel to the argument that the market has gotten ahead of itself on AI monetization.

**Meta Platforms** also reports Wednesday, with consensus estimates clustered around $60–61 billion in revenue and EPS in the $7.18–7.32 range. Revenue growth of roughly 27% year-over-year is expected, but EPS growth is projected at barely 1%, a striking gap that reflects just how much of the AI infrastructure spend is now flowing through the income statement rather than staying on the balance sheet. A beat on revenue paired with disciplined cost commentary would likely be taken well; a miss, or any signal that Reality Labs losses or AI capex are accelerating faster than advertising revenue can absorb, would likely reignite the margin-compression worries that have already dogged the stock for parts of this year.

**Apple** reports Thursday after the close — notably the final earnings call for CEO Tim Cook before his planned transition to hardware chief John Ternus. Consensus calls for revenue of roughly $108.8–110 billion and EPS near $1.88–1.89, which would mark close to 20% earnings growth from a year ago. Apple has beaten estimates every quarter for the past year, and investors will be watching iPhone demand, Services growth, and any detail on the company’s comparatively capital-light approach to AI. A beat with strong Services momentum would likely be well received given Apple’s more conservative AI spending profile relative to peers; a miss on iPhone or China revenue would raise questions heading into the fall product cycle.

**Amazon** rounds out the week Thursday, with consensus EPS of $1.82 on revenue expected to grow about 17% to roughly $196.7 billion. AWS growth will be the number that matters most, with several analysts now modeling something in the 33% range for the year, aided by recent price increases and strong enterprise demand. A strong AWS print alongside healthy retail margins would likely support the stock given its Strong Buy consensus rating heading into the print; a disappointment on cloud growth, so soon after Microsoft and Alphabet’s own cloud numbers set a high bar, would stand out uncomfortably by comparison.

Last Week’s Economic Data: What We Learned

The single most important data point of the week was Thursday’s jobless claims report, and it delivered a genuine surprise. Initial claims for the week ending July 18 fell to 187,000, a drop of 22,000 from the prior week and roughly 12–13% below the 212,000 consensus — the lowest weekly total since 1969. That is an extraordinarily strong labor market signal on paper, but it landed awkwardly for markets already worried about inflation, since a labor market this tight gives the Fed less room to justify easing and effectively firmed up the odds of a hawkish outcome at this week’s FOMC meeting. Alongside that, Treasury yields — already pressured by the oil spike — pushed to 18-month highs during the week, with the 2-year yield up nearly a full percentage point in a short span, a clear sign that rate markets were repricing toward a longer stretch of higher-for-longer policy.

Next Week’s Economic Data Preview: What To Watch

This is one of the densest data weeks of the quarter, and it’s worth walking through it in order. The FOMC decision lands Wednesday afternoon, with the Fed widely expected to hold rates steady but facing that meaningful one-in-three market-implied probability of a hike given persistent inflation readings and the energy-driven price pressure of the past month. Thursday brings the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP alongside the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, both landing within about 24 hours of the Fed decision — a genuinely rare compression of major signals into a 48-hour window. A GDP print that surprises to the upside alongside sticky core PCE would reinforce the case for a more hawkish Fed path into the fall; a soft GDP number would complicate that picture and give doves more to point to. Friday closes the week with another initial jobless claims release and the Employment Cost Index, both of which will be read closely for confirmation of whether the extraordinary tightness seen in last week’s claims data was a one-off or the start of a trend — with the July nonfarm payrolls report, just days later, waiting to settle the question either way.

Where Things Stand

Put together, the picture heading into next week is one of unusually stacked risk. A Fed decision with real hike odds attached, back-to-back GDP and inflation prints landing almost on top of it, and four of the five largest companies in the market reporting earnings within 48 hours — all set against a geopolitical backdrop where oil above $100 a barrel is already doing some of the Fed’s tightening work for it. Corporate earnings themselves remain genuinely strong, arguably stronger than anyone expected coming into the season, but the market’s reaction to good numbers has been telling: both Alphabet and Tesla beat and still sold off, because investors are no longer rewarding growth on its own — they want to see that the enormous capital spending behind it is translating into durable, monetizable demand. That’s the lens next week’s Big Tech reports will be judged through, and it’s the same lens the Fed will be applying to next week’s data.

What Investors Should Be Doing

**Cautious investors** have real reason for patience this week. With a Fed decision carrying genuine hike risk, a GDP and inflation double-header landing within a day of it, and oil prices adding an external inflationary wildcard, this is not a week to be reaching for risk. Keeping some dry powder on hand and letting the week’s events play out before making meaningful moves is a reasonable posture, particularly given how sharply markets have already punished good-but-not-perfect earnings this season.

**Balanced investors** should focus on quality and diversification rather than trying to predict which way Wednesday’s Fed decision breaks. A portfolio spread across sectors — including some exposure to energy and defensive names that benefit from the current environment, alongside core technology holdings — is better positioned to absorb whatever combination of Fed and earnings surprises materializes than one concentrated purely in the most AI-exposed names.

**Growth investors** watching this week’s Big Tech cluster should pay closest attention to capital expenditure commentary rather than headline beats or misses. The market has made clear this earnings season that it will punish strong results if they come with escalating capex guidance and no clear payoff timeline attached — Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon’s tone on 2027 spending plans will likely matter more to how these stocks trade over the following weeks than the quarter that just closed.

Four Companies Very Affected By Current Conditions

**Chevron** sits at the center of this week’s dominant macro story. With Brent crude back above $100 a barrel as fighting between the U.S. and Iran has resumed and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to normal traffic, Chevron’s upstream production and margins are directly exposed to how the conflict develops from here. The company has direct assets near the conflict zone, including its Tamar and Leviathan gas fields, which cuts both ways — real operational risk, but also real leverage to a war premium that has already been supporting the stock. How the Fed responds to oil-driven inflation next week will shape whether that premium holds or fades.

**Constellation Energy** sits at the intersection of two of the year’s biggest themes: the AI infrastructure buildout and the search for reliable power to run it. As Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google all report this week and are expected to reiterate enormous capital spending plans for data centers, the electricity to power them remains a genuine bottleneck, and Constellation’s large nuclear fleet has made it one of the primary beneficiaries of long-term power agreements with hyperscalers. Its fortunes are now arguably more tied to Big Tech’s capex guidance than to traditional utility fundamentals.

**D.R. Horton** is a direct read on how the Fed’s rate path is landing on ordinary households. Mortgage rates have been climbing again as Treasury yields have risen alongside oil prices and inflation concern, pushing home prices to a fresh all-time high even as affordability keeps deteriorating. A hawkish surprise from the Fed this week, or hot inflation data on Thursday, would put further pressure on an already-stretched housing market; a dovish hold with calm data could offer builders like D.R. Horton some near-term relief.

**Frontline** is one of the more unusual beneficiaries of the current environment. As a major operator of very large crude carriers, the company has seen revenue climb sharply as the Strait of Hormuz disruption forces oil to travel longer, more expensive routes and pushes up both freight rates and war-risk insurance costs — a dynamic that has meant elevated oil prices and shipping disruption have actually been a tailwind for tanker economics even as they’ve weighed on much of the rest of the market. Any de-escalation in the Gulf would cut the other way just as quickly.

Final Thought Of The Day

This is a week where the macro calendar and the earnings calendar are colliding almost exactly, and the market’s message so far this earnings season has been unusually consistent: strong numbers alone are no longer enough. Investors want proof that the extraordinary capital being poured into AI, energy, and infrastructure is translating into durable returns, not just bigger spending commitments — and with the Fed weighing in on rates at the same moment four of the market’s largest companies report, next week should go a long way toward answering whether that proof is starting to show up.

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This newsletter is not intended as financial advice. If you would like tailored financial advice, please get in touch with me directly at lawrence.young@holbornassets.com.

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